Blog :: 07-2011

Lawrence Yun's Greenwich Real Estate Outlook

[pdf issuu_pdf_id="110727215037-6dfe742ce554458a929935866b8cbd4e"]These are the slides from a presentation that Lawrence Yun did at the Belle Haven Club to Greenwich Realtors about the state of the housing market. Lawrence Yun is the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. Here's a quick write-up of his presentation : thought he did a great job at the presentation. It would take me more time than I have tonight to draft up all of my notes. If you are very interested feel free to comment here and I will respond. Here are some of the notes that I think are pertinent:-The monthly existing home sales slide that shows the "Tax Credit Impact" does not have a direct effect on Greenwich real estate, since the tax credit is fairly nominal in even our lower price brackets. That being said, it did have an affect on the national real estate market and the national mood, which in turn helps all real estate.-If you fast forward to the "New Home Price vs. Existing Home Price" slide you'll see the spread between new and existing homes. I'm a big believer that this isn't as wide here in Greenwich when such a high percentage of the value of one's home is in the land.-"Weekly Fresh Unemployment Claims..." - Yun is a big believer that the 400,000 level in unemployment will signal a true break in recovery. We came right down to that number in the beginning of 2011, but didn't break through it. Yun feels that we won't have a true recovery until we break 400,000 and therefor we should watch that closely.-"Home Price vs Rent" - I'm considering basing my next monthly mailing on this slide/theme.  (If you want to get my monthly mailing you can sign up on the right side bar or you can email me at There is so much to talk about here. Without getting into specifics (I'm happy to give you my long winded explanation if you want to buy me coffee), I'm a big believer that the separation in pricing between rent and purchase was a huge signal that we were going into a bubble.  As you can see, we are witnessing a contraction and offset right now. Hopefully the two markets will converge soon and we can get back on track. Please don't look at this graph and think it's a great time to purchase a rental in Greenwich.  I'm not saying it isn't, I'm just saying that there is so much more to the local story than a national graph can explain.-"Smart Money Buying?" - I have a big problem with anyone that uses the term "Smart Money" since it means that not everyone is smart.  The entire market today is extremely well informed and we can't place such labels on groups of people.-"Average Credit Score for Loan Origination" - Yun is basically saying her that "if" underwriting loosens up a bit and we come down to 720/720/660 we should see 15% to 20% higher sales numbers. He's basically pushing for lower underwriting standards. I'm not sure I agree that this is the problem. I'm a big believer that the banks don't necessarily need to change their standards, but they should change their process.  I've seen so many qualified buyers end up going crazy trying to satisfy the loan requirements. They all have received loans at the end of the day - the process is just too hard.  There has to be a simpler way to underwrite to the same standards without driving your customers crazy.  Looking at the next slide I disagree. The process is too hard, not the rules being too strict.Yun then starts to attack (or argue) about the policians. He doesn't seem to have a bias (rep/dem) and argues that both sides are causing problems. He does though continue to include optimistic insights as to what could happen going forward if we help to support consumer confidence. This, to me, is the name of the game in Greenwich. Consumer Confidence is a number/area I pay very close attention to as so much of a house's value in Greenwich is discretionary.  I'm not a huge fan of the unemployment number (see his slides) as I don't think they are that accurate.  Some argue that the number is too low as not everyone is collecting unemployment. Some argue that it is too high as people find ways to live off unemployment when they could find work.  Add in the fact that many people today are living lives that they consider unemployed while working jobs they are overqualified for just to get work, even if the pay doesn't fully support their family and you can see why I'm not a fan of this number.At the end of the day I think Professor Yun did a great job. He has a long term positive outlook, which I share.  Please feel free to post questions/comments here (or email me) and I will try to address them in a timely manner.


  1. Scott Elwell on

    You beat me to the punch. I was going to draft up a quick explanation as to where this came from tonight. These are the slides from a presentation that Lawrence Yun did at the Belle Haven Club to Greenwich Realtors about the state of the housing market. Lawrence Yun is the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. Here's a quick write-up of his presentation :
    • on

      [...] Greenwich CT real estate.  I wrote up a little summary on this a couple weeks ago that yo can find here. One of the charts I found interesting was this one:This chart shows the relative increase in price [...]

      THING 191 - Whiffenpoofs Coming To Greenwich

      The Whiffenpoofs of Yale are comprised of 14 senior Yale men who sing without accompaniment.  Founded in 1909, they are the world's oldest collegiate a cappella group.  Their repertoire incorporates modern hits as well as classics.They will perform on Saturday, August 27th, at 2:00 p.m.  at St. Michael the Archangel Church, 469 North Street, Greenwich, CT.Admission is $10.00 per person and will be collected at the door (cash please).All are welcome - For more information, visit "".

      THING 190 - Annual Greenwich Tennis Tournament FINALS

      Event Annual Town Tennis Tournament: Finals.
      Tel # (203) 618-7613 or
      Date July 30, 2011
      Time T.B.A.
      Location Download registration form at
      Cost $25 per event for singles player, $40 per event for doubles teams.
      Descript There are three divisions for men, women, singles, doubles, mixed doubles, youth 17 years and under, and youths 12 years and under. Participants may register for one, two or three events. Please call the tennis info line at (203) 618-7613 between 5:00 - 7:30 P.M. Monday through Thursday.
      Note Rain date July 31, 2011.

      Meg Nolan van Reesema - another Greenwich expert

      THING 188 - Sidewalk Sales on Greenwich Avenue


       25 Park

      Alice + Olivia

      Anne Fontaine


      Banchet Flowers

      Beam & Barre

      Becker Salon

      BCBG Max Azria

      Brooks Brothers


      Christopher Fischer

      Comptoir des Cotonniers

      Courage. b

      Crave Boutique

      Curtain Works

      Dr. Michele Levy


      Edi Santos Salon

      Ella Vickers



      Great Stuff

      Greenwich Running Company

      HB Home

      HH Brown

      Hoagland's of Greenwich

      Innovation Luggage

      J. Crew

      J Mclaughlin

      Jaafar Tazi Salon


      Jack Dog Studio

      Kate Spade

      Katzenberg Kafe

      Kimara Ahnert


      Le Pain Quotidien

      LF Stores

      Lillian August Designs

      Lilly Pulitzer


      Lux Bond & Green

      Lynnen's Inc.


      McArdle's Florist

      Michael Kors

      Mis en Scene

      Mitchell Gold + Bob Williams

      Morello Italian Bistro

      Olivine Gabbro

      Optical Options


      Out of the Box

      Outdoor Traders

      Patricia Gourley

      People's United Bank

      Petticoat Lane

      Polarn O. Pyret USA

      Richards of Greenwich

      Rinfret Ltd. Interior Design and Decoration

      Rugby Ralph Lauren

      Saks Fifth Avenue

      Samuel Owen Gallery

      Saint Mary Parish


      Simon Pearce

      Smart Kids' Avenue

      Shoe's & More


      Tahiti Street

      TD Bank

      The Athletes Foot

      The Ginger Man

      The Arthur Murray Grande Ballroom of Greenwich

      Threads & Treads


      Tory Burch


      The Tumi Store

      Theory - Greenwich

      Vineyard Vines

      Wish List



      Amanda Smith Caterers

      Asha Studio

      Nantucket Chicks

      Nino Bossi Handbags, Inc.

      Pet Pantry Warehouse

      Shaklee - Authorized Distributor, Debra Miron

      Venture Photography

      Vinylume, Inc.


      Daily Greenwich


      The Advocate / Greenwich Time, Brooks Community Newspapers

      WGCH AM 1490