After taking a little Thanksgiving vacation, 24 Crescent is back on the market at $1.449m. Although the property backs up to the off-ramp off I-95, the house has a great backyard, is on one of my favorite streets and has tons of charm. It's an interesting plus/minus play for a potential buyer who wants to stay in the mid $1s and wants the street & backyard.
Greenwich Real Estate
I'm sure that most of you are more concerned with what is going to happen in 2011 than what happened in 2010, though in order to properly do my job I need to give you a little history briefing. Don't worry; I'll also talk about what I see going forward.Looking back at 2010, it would be easy for me to tell you that we had a great year because 44% more sales took place (478) vs. 2009 (332), but that doesn't tell the whole picture. This 44% increase over 2009 is following a decrease of 20% from 2008 after a 37% decrease from 2007. What I am trying to say is that while we did have a great 2010, we need to put things in perspective before we get too excited.2007, 2008 and 2009 were very strange years that should have large asterisks over them, when looked at in reports. These years need to be taken with a grain of salt when included in reporting. It is my opinion that we should go back to the early 2000s to get a more regular growth baseline. During these periods Greenwich was closing 600 to 700 single-family homes per year, meaning we still have some sales growth to achieve.The number that I want to focus on (once again) is inventory. As you can see we ended 2010 with 673 single-family homes on the market vs. 2009's 716. In addition, many of these homes have been on the market for ages because they are not very well priced. I have read many national real estate reports stating that there is a nearly 7-year inventory supply in the national market right now. This would signal that the market might have further to fall. I'm not going to state that we might not have another downtick, though I do believe we are within close range of the floor, especially in Greenwich.The main problem I have with the national inventory numbers, commonly used by papers to show that the sky is falling, is that these numbers include cities like Las Vegas, Detroit and Miami. These cities are outliers and should not always be included in general reporting. What happened in Detroit and is happening in Vegas should not have much of an impact on Connecticut real estate. Yes, we have many of the same problems as Miami, but to a much smaller degree. In Greenwich we don't have a 1-year supply of inventory, regardless a 7-year supply. In addition when you subtract the homes that are miss-priced and won't sell until the owners really want them to, the inventory number is even lower.In the coming weeks we should see an overall uptick in transactions in Greenwich. There are many sellers out there getting ready to list their homes for the spring market, which will entice buyers to crawl out of their holes. In addition, interest rates have shown that they have the ability to climb, which should help motivate buyers off the fence. Some of my prediction is also based upon the general cyclical nature of real estate. Lifelong real estate agents often look forward to the post Super Bowl (poor Giants) market, when buyers come outside after turning their TV off.On my new website www.GreenwichCT.com I will continue to talk about transactions and new listings that interest me. I don't have the time to talk about everything that occurs in Greenwich, though if you have any questions/comments concerning specific homes or anything else related to Greenwich Real Estate feel free to speak up. Feel free to email me at email@example.com, post your questions on my website, or chat on my Facebook page. Please feel free to speak up!Wishing everyone a spectacular 2011,ScottGreenwichCT.com Scott P. ElwellAl Filippone Associates @ William Raveis45 Field Point Road, Greenwich, CT 06830Cell: firstname.lastname@example.orgWant to search Greenwich, CT? Go to elwellsc.grw.mlxchange.comWant to search Fairfield County? Go to scottelwell.listingbook.com
Welcome to 2011 everyone. We have made it and now have a month under our belt. I hope everyone out there has been able to stay warm though this crazy winter. I'm going to do something that I thought I would never do and agree that the weather has had an impact on the real estate market here in Greenwich. A couple years ago I would have told you that was crazy and a market will outshine any wild weather, but under these wild circumstances I am changing my opinion. The 4 feet of snow and ice sitting outside of many houses hasn't been very conducive to getting sellers to list or buyers to come out and play. Although the numbers state that we had a fairly slow January, with only 29 sales and 69 listings, I read these numbers as strong considering the weather. It is my belief that this is going to pick up dramatically in the coming two months.I have started to see more buyers and even elusive developers coming out to kick tires. I see this as a result of warmer weather, stronger economy and the result of an uptick in mortgage rates. Agents have been worried for years that the interest rates will start coming up, but I say bring it on. An uptick in rates should help motivate buyers off the fence and should also help bring back a more traditional real estate market.As you read through some of the data that I have attached to this email please take into account that this is just data and does not give the full picture - that's, hopefully, my job. You see the "Months of Supply" number calculated at 13.9, well that's a simple calculation based upon the rate of houses going in and coming out. What it doesn't say is that the current inventory includes many houses that are not listed at realistic numbers. These outliers, as I like to call them, shouldn't be included in the regular inventory as they are not going to trade until either the sellers drop the price or someone just has to have the home and over pays. In addition, when you look at the three-year Greenwich Real Estate Snapshot please don't add to much credence to the 2009 numbers. Yes, technically, the average sales price in Jan 2009 was almost $4m, but there were only 5 trades and a couple of them were big. That doesn't mean that the market was really eating up $4m houses.The reason that I bring this to everyone's attention is that right now, more than ever, people are stretching the truth on what's going on. It is fairly easy to say the economy is great or horrible by just referencing one or two data points. In order to get the full picture you need to look past some of the data points that people are selling you on. I do believe that we are standing at the base of an upward swinging residential market, but I don't know how steep the climb is going to be. January was a fairly average month and I don't think the data defends the level of interest I have been seeing. I can think of several houses that might have traded, or at least would have been listed, a little earlier had Mother Nature not wanted to torture us. This, I see as a good sign. If you are interested in buying, I'd start searching asap and if you are interested in selling I really believe you should get your house listed sooner than later. Come mid-March when everyone has kids out for spring vacation the spring market will be in full force and there will be lots of competition.Obviously if you are not working with a realtor, I'd be more than happy to help!Sincerely,ScottGreenwichCT.comScott P. ElwellAl Filippone Associates @ William Raveis45 Field Point Road, Greenwich, CT 06830Cell: email@example.comWant to search Greenwich, CT? Go to elwellsc.grw.mlxchange.comWant to search Fairfield County? Go to scottelwell.listingbook.com
I've spent countless hours weighing the pros and cons of owning real estate in Old Greenwich. First of all, I can't tell you how much I love the community. The con is that it is more expensive than other ares. You pay for what you get. Old Greenwich real estate over the past 20 years has got to be one of the best producing assets in town. The reason, in my opinion, has been the increase in demand to owning properties in close knit communities. Like Cos Cob, North Mianus and Riverside, Old Greenwich has one of the closest communities in Greenwich. I tell my clients all the time that if they end up buying on certain streets, I wouldn't be suprised if a couple apple pies and welcome baskets made it to their door within a couple weeks of closing.
In addition to the town, Tod's Point (Greenwich Point Park) is one of the biggest attractions. Not only does this incredible 150 acre public waterfront mecca provide a fantastic place to visit durring the warmer months, but in the winter it is open to dogs.
I'm down there all the time with mine.